I recently sat in on our brokerage's 2026 Mid-Year Market Update, presented by Ron Shuffield, President & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty. It's one of the most data-rich looks at South Florida real estate I see all year, pulling together Census migration data, mortgage rate history, and MLS statistics across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Here are the numbers that matter most for where the Miami market stands halfway through 2026 — and if you want to dig into the full presentation, you can view the complete digital report here.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty's 2026 Mid-Year Market Update, covering Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.
Florida Is Still Growing — A Lot
The biggest structural fact underneath Miami real estate is population growth. Between July 2020 and July 2025, Florida added 1,871,193 net new permanent residents — more than any other state.
That's not a pandemic blip — it's a five-year trend, and it's the demand engine behind this whole report. New residents need somewhere to live, and that steady inflow is a big reason Miami-Dade values have held up better than many other U.S. metros despite higher rates.
Interest Rates and Buying Power
As of June 30, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.49% — down from cycle highs near 7.79% in late 2023, but still far above the 2.65%–3.22% rates of early 2021–2022.
The practical effect: on the same monthly payment, a buyer who could afford roughly $1,000,000 at 3.0% can now only qualify for about $667,000 at 6.5% — a loss of roughly a third of their buying power. That explains why deal volume slowed even as population kept growing, and why buyers today are more rate-sensitive.
Why this matters for you: if you've been waiting for rates to drop before buying, run the numbers on what you actually need versus want. Every point of rate improvement changes what you can afford — but so does every month of continued appreciation on the home you're watching.
The Under-$500K Market Is Where the Action Is
One of the most useful breakdowns compares Q2 2026 to Q2 2025 for homes under $500,000 across the tri-county area — the segment most first-time and value-focused buyers compete in.
| County (Single-Family, Under $500K) | Inventory | Total Sales | Median Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | ▲ 30% | ▲ 5% | ▼ 0.7% ($430K vs. $433K) |
| Broward | ▼ 22% | ▲ 3% | ▼ 1% ($415K vs. $420K) |
| Palm Beach | ▼ 30% | ▲ 7% | Flat ($420K vs. $420K) |
Miami-Dade stands out: inventory in this band jumped 30% year-over-year while prices stayed essentially flat — a rare combination and one of the clearest buyer-friendly signals in the report.
Coral Gables: A Market of Extremes
Coral Gables tells a more layered story — a good illustration of how "the market" really means several markets moving at once.
Source: Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, 2026 Mid-Year Market Update (MLS data, Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025).
Every segment except one is posting solid price gains — single-family under $2M up 6%, over $2M up 11%, luxury condos over $2M up 16%. The exception is condos under $2M, down 4%, echoing the same insurance and reserve pressure seen county-wide.
Inventory tells a related story: single-family listings under $2M in Coral Gables dropped 47% year-over-year, with supply down to 2.7 months — deep seller's-market territory for that segment, even while the broader county sits in buyer-friendly conditions.
The takeaway: Coral Gables single-family homes, especially under $2M, are in tight supply and commanding real price growth — expect competition. Condos in the same range are the opposite: softer pricing, more room to negotiate.
What This Means Going Into the Second Half of 2026
- Demand isn't going anywhere — Florida's population growth is a multi-year trend, not a temporary bump.
- Rates are the swing factor. Any meaningful drop from 6.49% would restore buying power and likely accelerate activity, especially under $500K.
- Entry-level buyers have real leverage, particularly in Miami-Dade, where inventory is up sharply with prices essentially flat.
- Not every segment moves together — single-family and luxury condos in Coral Gables are strong; mid-market condos are soft.
Want the Numbers That Apply to Your Specific Search?
Market-wide data is a starting point — your neighborhood, price range, and timeline change the picture. Let's talk through what these trends actually mean for your goals.
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